How do you perform trade-off analysis and risk assessment for different payload and mission concepts?

2 Risk assessment

Risk assessment is a complementary process of identifying and analyzing the potential hazards and uncertainties that may affect your project, and estimating their likelihood and consequences. It helps you to assess the feasibility and viability of your options, and to plan for mitigation and contingency actions. Risk assessment can be done qualitatively or quantitatively, using various methods and tools, such as fault tree analysis, failure mode and effects analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, and probabilistic risk analysis. For example, you can use risk assessment to evaluate the technical, operational, environmental, and programmatic risks associated with your payload and mission concept, such as launch failure, orbital debris, radiation damage, communication loss, and schedule delay.

3 Trade-off analysis and risk assessment methods

To perform trade-off analysis and risk assessment for payloads and mission concepts, there are several methods and techniques available. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) uses mathematical models and algorithms to rank and select the best option based on multiple criteria and weights. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) relies on pairwise comparisons and hierarchical structures to determine the relative importance of criteria and alternatives. Value-focused thinking (VFT) employs value functions and value trees to define and measure the value of objectives and alternatives. Decision tree analysis (DTA) utilizes graphical representations of possible outcomes and probabilities of events and alternatives. Lastly, expected utility theory (EUT) uses utility functions and expected values to evaluate the alternatives based on their risk and reward.

4 Trade-off analysis and risk assessment examples

To illustrate how trade-off analysis and risk assessment can be applied in practice, let's look at some examples of payload and mission concepts from real or hypothetical spacecraft projects. For example, a Mars Sample Return mission concept requires comparing different options for the sample collection, caching, retrieval, launch, transfer, entry, descent, landing, and recovery systems, as well as assessing the technical, operational, environmental, and programmatic risks associated with each option. A CubeSat payload concept involves selecting the most suitable payload components such as sensors, actuators, processors, batteries, solar panels, antennas, and transceivers while evaluating the performance, reliability, safety, and cost of each component. Lastly, a space telescope payload concept requires choosing the optimal telescope design such as aperture size, focal length, resolution, sensitivity and field of view while estimating the risks of launch vibration, thermal distortion, contamination alignment error and degradation.

5 Trade-off analysis and risk assessment tips

To perform trade-off analysis and risk assessment effectively and efficiently for your payload and mission concepts, it is important to define objectives and criteria explicitly, prioritize them according to their importance, gather relevant data from reliable sources, use appropriate methods and tools that suit your problem and context, involve stakeholders and experts in the decision-making process, communicate findings and recommendations clearly and transparently, and review and update your analysis regularly.

6 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?