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How do you measure and reduce the uncertainty and risk of your opportunity?

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As an entrepreneur, you have a vision of creating value for your customers and yourself. But how do you know if your idea is feasible, desirable, and viable? How do you reduce the uncertainty and risk of your opportunity before investing too much time, money, and effort? In this article, you will learn some practical methods to measure and reduce the uncertainty and risk of your opportunity.

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1 Identify your assumptions

The first step to measure and reduce the uncertainty and risk of your opportunity is to identify your assumptions. Assumptions are the beliefs that you have about your customers, their problems, your solution, your market, your competitors, your revenue model, and your resources. You need to make a list of all the assumptions that you have and rank them according to their importance and uncertainty. The most important and uncertain assumptions are the ones that you need to test and validate as soon as possible.

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Justin Turner

The Science of business guy
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Lean Startup methodology advocates for building a Minimum Viable Product (MVP) and then iterating and testing it with customers to learn and validate assumptions about the business opportunity. This approach helps reduce uncertainty and risk by enabling you to test your assumptions relatively cheaply and in a low-risk way. The Business Model Canvas is a helpful visual tool for developing and describing a business model. It provides a structured way to identify critical components of a business model and how they fit together. Using the Business Model Canvas, you can identify potential risks and uncertainties in your business model and develop strategies to mitigate them.

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Ismail Malik

Decentralized Systems
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Alignment with Product Market fit for the solution you have in mind should start to become a focus at the earliest stage possible

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2 Test your assumptions

The second step to measure and reduce the uncertainty and risk of your opportunity is to test your assumptions. Testing your assumptions means designing and conducting experiments to collect evidence that supports or contradicts your assumptions. You can use various methods to test your assumptions, such as interviews, surveys, observations, prototypes, landing pages, ads, etc. The goal is to find out if your assumptions are true, false, or partially true, and to learn from the feedback that you get from your potential customers and stakeholders.

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Ismail Malik

Decentralized Systems
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Hitting the phones, asking friends and window shopping are key call potential customers do a sales pitch feel the potential for your solution product

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Frances Schagen

Optimizing Your Accounting Stack
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Use financial modeling to find out if your options are even viable for you and to figure out which are the best financially. Projections, budgets and cash flows allow you to see what will happen with each option and how they will play out in your business.

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3 Validate your opportunity

The third step to measure and reduce the uncertainty and risk of your opportunity is to validate your opportunity. Validating your opportunity means confirming that you have a problem-solution fit, a product-market fit, and a business model fit. A problem-solution fit means that you have a clear understanding of your customers' needs and pains, and that you have a solution that solves them effectively. A product-market fit means that you have a product that delivers value to your customers, and that you have a market that is willing and able to pay for it. A business model fit means that you have a way to generate revenue and profit from your product, and that you have a sustainable competitive advantage.

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Frances Schagen

Optimizing Your Accounting Stack
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Financial modeling lets you test your idea to see what your new business model can look like. You want to see this before you run your experiment and put benchmarks in place to make sure you are staying on track.

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4 Pivot or persevere

The fourth step to measure and reduce the uncertainty and risk of your opportunity is to pivot or persevere. Pivoting means changing one or more elements of your opportunity based on the evidence that you have collected from testing your assumptions. Persevering means continuing with your current opportunity based on the evidence that you have collected from validating your opportunity. You need to make this decision based on the data and insights that you have gathered, not on your gut feelings or emotions. You also need to be flexible and willing to adapt to the changing market conditions and customer preferences.

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Ismail Malik

Decentralized Systems
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Often its not so clear if potential customers need your product solution do give credence to your gut instinct and what it is trying to communicate.

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Frances Schagen

Optimizing Your Accounting Stack
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Before you start your experiment, have benchmarks ready. Know what data you need and what expectations you have as measures of success. After the fact, it's easy to explain away results, so having objective expected results will let you make data-driven decisions.

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5 Scale or exit

The fifth step to measure and reduce the uncertainty and risk of your opportunity is to scale or exit. Scaling means growing your opportunity by reaching more customers, expanding to new markets, increasing your revenue, and optimizing your operations. Exiting means ending your opportunity by selling it, shutting it down, or pivoting to a new one. You need to make this decision based on the performance and potential of your opportunity, as well as your personal goals and aspirations. You also need to be realistic and honest about the challenges and opportunities that you face.

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Ismail Malik

Decentralized Systems
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Don't discount to partnership or acquisition and even the direct listing onto an exchange or consider dilution bring onboard more experienced CEO

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6 Learn and improve

The sixth step to measure and reduce the uncertainty and risk of your opportunity is to learn and improve. Learning means reflecting on your experience and feedback, and identifying the key lessons and insights that you have gained from your opportunity. Improving means applying those lessons and insights to your current or future opportunities, and enhancing your skills and knowledge as an entrepreneur. You need to make this a continuous and iterative process, as there is always room for improvement and innovation.

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Ismail Malik

Decentralized Systems
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Get completely obsessed by the continuous daily improvement mantra seeking to consistently improve, adjust, change each and every facet of your business.

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7 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?

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Ismail Malik

Decentralized Systems
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Bring onboard advisors. Mentors and whole host of aids to improve your optics and vision for the business do this considering good fit for yourself as founder and the business.

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How do you measure and reduce the uncertainty and risk of your opportunity?

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1 Identify your assumptions

2 Test your assumptions

3 Validate your opportunity

4 Pivot or persevere

5 Scale or exit

6 Learn and improve

7 Here’s what else to consider

Entrepreneurship

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How do you measure and reduce the uncertainty and risk of your opportunity?

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1 Identify your assumptions

2 Test your assumptions

3 Validate your opportunity

4 Pivot or persevere

5 Scale or exit

6 Learn and improve

7 Here’s what else to consider

Entrepreneurship

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