Uncertainty is inevitable in decision-making, especially in complex and dynamic situations. How can you cope with the ambiguity and unpredictability of the outcomes and consequences of your choices? Here are some tips and strategies to help you manage uncertainty in decision-making.
The first step is to identify the sources of uncertainty in your decision-making process. Uncertainty can arise from different factors, such as incomplete or unreliable information, conflicting or changing goals, multiple or unknown alternatives, or external influences and risks. By recognizing the sources of uncertainty, you can assess their impact and relevance, and decide how to address them.
Most examples of poor decision making come from the lack of identification of the sources of uncertainty. ☆ If you are able to sit back and get a grip on all areas which could result into some issues or conflicts, only then you would be in a position to plan around it.
The next step is to gather and evaluate the information that is available and relevant to your decision. Information can help you reduce uncertainty by providing evidence, insights, or feedback. However, information can also be misleading, biased, or outdated, so you need to be critical and selective. You can use various methods and tools to collect and analyze information, such as research, data, surveys, interviews, or experiments.
The third step is to consider different scenarios and options that could result from your decision. Scenarios are hypothetical situations that describe the possible outcomes and consequences of your decision, based on certain assumptions and variables. Options are alternative courses of action that you can choose from, based on your goals and preferences. By considering scenarios and options, you can explore the implications and trade-offs of your decision, and compare and contrast the pros and cons.
The fourth step is to apply frameworks and models that can help you structure and simplify your decision-making process. Frameworks and models are systematic and logical approaches that can guide you through the steps and criteria of decision-making, such as defining the problem, identifying the objectives, generating and evaluating alternatives, and choosing and implementing the best option. Some examples of frameworks and models are SWOT analysis, decision matrix, cost-benefit analysis, or decision tree.
Here's what I offer my clients when they have are faced with a tough decision. Take each scenario and answer this question. 1. What will gain if I do? 2. What will gain if I do not? 3. What will I lose if I do? 4. What will I gain if I do not? These questions offer tremendous clarity.
The fifth step is to seek feedback and advice from others who can offer different perspectives, opinions, or expertise on your decision. Feedback and advice can help you validate, challenge, or improve your decision, by providing additional information, insights, or suggestions. However, you should also be aware of the potential biases, agendas, or limitations of the sources of feedback and advice, and weigh them against your own judgment and values.
One thing I have found useful is to take a step down and approach someone to seek feedback as a sceptical analysis. ☆ Even if you are technically the subject matter expert, very often it helps to seek suggestions from someone else - FINAL call you only can take but at times hearing such skepticism can help.
The final step is to embrace uncertainty as an inherent and inevitable part of decision-making, rather than a barrier or a threat. Uncertainty can also be a source of opportunity, creativity, and learning, by encouraging you to be flexible, adaptive, and curious. You can embrace uncertainty by acknowledging its presence, accepting its limits, and managing its effects. You can also use techniques such as mindfulness, visualization, or positive affirmations to cope with the stress and anxiety that uncertainty can cause.
The most effective thought to think when I am faced with uncertainty is "what if I simply chose to like my decision." That way you are in an empowered position to take the learnings when thing do not go as planned.