How do you identify disruptors in your industry using scenario planning?

1 What is scenario planning?

Scenario planning is a process of creating and analyzing different stories or scenarios about how the future might unfold in your industry. Each scenario is based on a combination of key drivers or uncertainties that could have a significant impact on your industry. For example, some key drivers could be the level of economic growth, the pace of innovation, the degree of environmental awareness, or the strength of social movements. By creating and comparing different scenarios, you can test your assumptions, identify opportunities and threats, and develop contingency plans.

2 Why use scenario planning to identify disruptors?

Scenario planning can help you identify disruptors in your industry by encouraging you to consider possibilities beyond your current expectations and assumptions. Disruptors are often unpredictable and unexpected events or trends that can drastically alter the rules of the game in your industry, such as creating new markets, customers, competitors, or business models, or making existing ones obsolete. Through scenario planning, you can anticipate and prepare for different types of disruptors, including technological disruptors like artificial intelligence or blockchain, competitive disruptors like Netflix or Airbnb, regulatory disruptors like GDPR or Brexit, and customer disruptors such as health-consciousness or personalization.

3 How to use scenario planning to identify disruptors?

Scenario planning can help identify disruptors in your industry. To do this, you should first define the scope and time frame of your planning. Consider what aspects of your industry you want to focus on and how far into the future you want to look. Then, identify the key drivers and uncertainties of your industry, such as political, economic, social, technological, environmental, or legal factors. After that, create and describe different scenarios based on the key drivers and uncertainties. Identify and analyze potential disruptors for each scenario. Finally, develop and implement action plans to address the disruptors. Monitor and review your action plans regularly and adjust them as needed.