How do you foster a culture of scenario thinking and learning in your organization?

I start by explaining that the sooner we learn about the problem, the less harm it will cause. This scenario always works.....

To instill a scenario thinking and learning culture, practice open communication, and embrace changes as an opportunity for growth. Conduct regular scenario planning training, promoting cross-functional collaboration and diverse perspectives. Leaders should exemplify adaptability, treating mistakes as learning opportunities. Integrate scenario thinking into strategic planning, fostering readiness for various outcomes. Invest in ongoing employee development, celebrating learning achievements. Establish a knowledge-sharing platform and revisit scenarios regularly, aligning organizational values with foresight and adaptability. This systemic approach creates a dynamic, learning-centric culture essential for navigating uncertainties.

Gosto sempre de trabalhar com três tipos de cenários quando construo planos de a??o, um pessimista, um mediano e um otimista. Esta prática permite que você esteja preparado para qualquer situa??o, ganhando tempo para corre??es de rota ou desdobramentos necessários.

In my organization, I foster a culture of scenario thinking and learning by blending Sun Tzu's strategic foresight with Marcus Aurelius' stoic adaptability, complemented by modern OSINT and HUMINT practices. This approach involves anticipating various potential scenarios, grounding decisions in diverse data sources, and encouraging knowledge sharing. By embracing Sun Tzu's emphasis on understanding the broader context and Aurelius' focus on preparedness, alongside leveraging open-source and human intelligence, we cultivate a collaborative environment where strategic planning and continuous learning are paramount.

Promovemos uma cultura de pensamento de cenário e aprendizado incentivando a inova??o, realizando workshops frequentes e promovendo a colabora??o entre equipes. Utilizamos simula??es para explorar diferentes futuros e compartilhamos insights regularmente para fomentar uma mentalidade proativa e adaptável.

Quando desenvolvemos um estudo, existem diversas maneiras de se olhar um problema. Se escolhermos uma favorita e ficarmos com ela sozinhos, ficamos vulneráveis aos viéses cognitivos. Para se ter certeza de que a decis?o é a melhor possível, precisamos desenvolver alguns cenários e nos planejarmos para o que acontece em cada um deles. Análise de risco e de oportunidades é importantíssimo para sairmos do achismo e chegarmos na inteligência de mercado.

Scenario planning helps businesses identify and prepare for potential risks and uncertainties in the market environment. By envisioning multiple future scenarios, organizations can develop contingency plans and strategies to mitigate risks and adapt to changing circumstances.

Scenario planning for market intelligence is in itself a complex process because you have to go beyond and look at biases so trying to do that with a limited group is always going to be risky and to be able to negate that you may have to draw out a plan that will involve external experts as well as accept the cost of repeated testing because when you talk about scenario planning scenarios can change not just because of the business that you do but also because of external pressures like competitors government regulators and consumer expectations so the future is unknown hence scenario planning is an exercise that has to be done on a regular basis to truly understand what's happening.

Scenario planning for market intelligence involves four key steps. Firstly, define the scope and purpose of your scenario project, including questions to answer, time horizon, and stakeholders. Next, identify key drivers and uncertainties that may influence markets and customers in the future. Then, develop scenarios with catchy names and narratives based on these drivers and uncertainties. Finally, analyze and apply the scenarios, comparing them to assess implications for various aspects such as value proposition, differentiation, and competitors. Also, identify indicators signaling scenario likelihood and necessary preparatory actions.

In my opinion, market intelligence is a substantial way to add dimensionality to scenario planning rather than the opposite. To explain my claim, I refer to market intelligence as a method to understand the range of events that have some likelihood to occur. Today, we can determine traces of events that could be rare and for which we hardly have (if any) experience or historical data. Process: (1) Conduct a Small Data analysis of your market. (2) Identify events with at least some probability. (3) Add an impact analysis of the events (rare events can be fatal or costly). (4) Use that range as input for your scenario planing.

In my experience the best way to incentivize everyone to think in scenarios is to be open to every opinion in the group. Starting there will give a way to try and encourage imagining different outcomes to the problem being attacked. I find that there is really no need to bring structure at this point, since simply discussing different outcomes is, in its own way, scenario thinking.

Encourage cross-functional collaboration and participation in scenario planning activities. Bring together individuals from different departments and disciplines to contribute their diverse perspectives and expertise to the scenario development process. Foster a culture of collaboration, openness, and knowledge sharing to leverage the collective intelligence of the organization.

To foster culture or scenario thinking and learning organisations have to be built around learning as a skill as something that has to be invested. organisations have to make learning an application count in a person's growth and design processes to measure the same. This way organisations can make learning a self driven programme than top down approach which is more stick approach than the alternative which is more carrots. This makes it easier for organisations to delve deeper and also tap into varied experiences and understandings of their entire workforce with active customer touch points also adding to the knowledge.

If you regularly train yourself to think of rare events as a possible future, you can prepare to believe in scenarios. It is about learning to prepare for some future (low probabilities) and potential strategies to handle them. What would you do if Y occurs under the condition of X? Always ask yourself about the impact of some event that could happen (side effects, costs, etc.) in tandem.