How do you forecast workforce in an uncertain environment?

1 Understand your business goals and drivers

The first step in forecasting workforce is to align your workforce planning with your business goals and drivers. What are the strategic objectives and priorities of your organization? What are the external and internal factors that affect your demand and supply of labor? How do you measure and monitor your performance and outcomes? By answering these questions, you can identify the key variables and indicators that influence your workforce needs and gaps.

2 Analyze your current and historical data

The next step in forecasting workforce is to collect and analyze your current and historical data on your workforce and workload. This includes data on your headcount, turnover, retention, skills, competencies, productivity, efficiency, quality, customer satisfaction, and revenue. You can use various tools and methods to analyze your data, such as descriptive statistics, trend analysis, correlation analysis, and regression analysis. By doing this, you can establish a baseline and a pattern of your workforce behavior and performance.

3 Apply different forecasting techniques and scenarios

The third step in forecasting workforce is to apply different forecasting techniques and scenarios to project your future workforce needs and gaps. You can use various techniques, such as qualitative methods (e.g., expert opinions, surveys, focus groups), quantitative methods (e.g., time series, causal models, simulation models), or a combination of both. You can also create different scenarios, such as best case, worst case, and most likely case, to account for the uncertainty and variability of the environment. By doing this, you can generate a range of possible outcomes and contingency plans for your workforce planning.

4 Validate and communicate your forecasts

The fourth step in forecasting workforce is to validate and communicate your forecasts to your stakeholders and decision-makers. You can validate your forecasts by comparing them with other sources of information, such as industry benchmarks, market trends, competitor analysis, and feedback from customers and employees. You can communicate your forecasts by using clear and concise reports, dashboards, charts, and graphs that highlight the main findings and implications of your forecasts. By doing this, you can ensure the accuracy and reliability of your forecasts and gain the support and buy-in of your stakeholders and decision-makers.

5 Monitor and update your forecasts

The final step in forecasting workforce is to monitor and update your forecasts regularly and frequently. You can monitor your forecasts by tracking the actual results and performance of your workforce and workload against your projected targets and goals. You can update your forecasts by adjusting the assumptions, variables, and scenarios based on the changes and developments in the environment. By doing this, you can keep your forecasts relevant and responsive to the dynamic and uncertain environment.

6 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?