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How do you evaluate and communicate the results of a Delphi study?

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The Delphi method is a popular technique for forecasting future events, trends, or scenarios based on the opinions of experts. It involves multiple rounds of surveys, feedback, and consensus-building among a panel of experts who are anonymous to each other. But how do you evaluate and communicate the results of a Delphi study? In this article, we will cover some of the key steps and tips for doing so.

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1 Define the criteria

Before you start a Delphi study, you need to define the criteria for selecting the experts, the questions, and the outcomes. The criteria should be clear, relevant, and measurable, and aligned with the purpose and scope of the study. For example, you might want to consider the experts' qualifications, experience, diversity, and availability. You might also want to specify the type, format, and scale of the questions and the outcomes, such as qualitative or quantitative, open-ended or closed-ended, ordinal or interval, etc.

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Ahmed Hassanien, CMA?, FMVA?, DipIFR

Driving Organizational Success Through Strategic Finance Leadership |Finance Business Partner | Head Of Finance|Financial Controller|
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Before initiating a Delphi study, you must establish the criteria for selecting the experts, dictating the questions, and determining the outcomes. The criteria should be precise, significant, quantifiable and in line with the study's aim and extent ??. For instance, it might be meaningful to consider factors such as the experts' qualifications, their amount of experience, diversity, and their availability ??. Further, you may want to outline the nature, structure, and scale of the questions and outcomes—whether they're qualitative or quantitative, open or closed-ended, ordinal or interval etc.????.

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2 Analyze the data

After each round of the Delphi study, you need to analyze the data and provide feedback to the experts. The analysis should include descriptive statistics, such as mean, median, mode, standard deviation, and interquartile range, as well as measures of consensus, such as agreement, dispersion, stability, and convergence. You might also want to use graphical tools, such as histograms, box plots, or scatter plots, to visualize the data and the changes over the rounds. The feedback should summarize the main findings, highlight the areas of agreement and disagreement, and invite the experts to revise or justify their opinions.

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Gabriel VanDruff

Business Development | Data Analytics | Bringing the next generation of services and technology to the public sector
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Delphi studies facilitate rapid consensus building; however, are limited in cases where widely differing opinions are present. There are several challenges to conducting a Delphi study, notably ensuring anonymity, facilitator bias, and time. Yet, the greatest threat to a Delphi study is false consensus through over or under-sharing during structured feedback. In a 2021 study, Barrios et al. note that if the consensus level is shared when approaching 75%, outliers are likely to shift their view to the majority opinion. Further, if the consensus level is shared too early, participants will likely re-evaluate and change their opinion, potentially furthering the group from consensus. In either case, the target of a Delphi study is nullified.

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3 Interpret the results

Once you reach the final round of the Delphi study, you need to interpret the results and draw conclusions. The interpretation should focus on the main themes, patterns, and insights that emerge from the data, as well as the limitations, uncertainties, and assumptions that affect the validity and reliability of the results. You might also want to compare and contrast the results with other sources of information, such as literature, data, or scenarios, and explain the implications and recommendations for the topic of interest.

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4 Communicate the findings

The last step is to communicate the findings of the Delphi study to the relevant stakeholders, such as clients, sponsors, decision-makers, or the public. The communication should be clear, concise, and coherent, and tailored to the audience and the medium. You might want to use different formats and channels, such as reports, presentations, infographics, or podcasts, to convey the key messages, evidence, and arguments. You might also want to include a summary, an introduction, a methodology, a results, a discussion, and a conclusion section, as well as appendices, references, and acknowledgments.

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Ricardo Chang

| Strategic Business Manager | BDM | Sales & Commercial | B2B & B2C | Disruptive Innovator | Mentor
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Es fundamental elaborar un informe que resuma los resultados de las rondas del estudio Delphi. Debe ser claro y conciso en los puntos de consenso alcanzados, así como las áreas de desacuerdo o incertidumbre. Esto permite una comprensión completa de las áreas en las que existe acuerdo y desacuerdo. La presentación visual de los resultados a través de gráficos y diagramas puede facilitar la comprensión de los hallazgos. Por ejemplo, se pueden utilizar diagramas de barras para mostrar la distribución de respuestas en cada ronda del estudio.

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How do you evaluate and communicate the results of a Delphi study?

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1 Define the criteria

2 Analyze the data

3 Interpret the results

4 Communicate the findings

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