How do you estimate user story risk?

1 Why estimate user story risk?

Estimating user story risk helps you to make informed decisions about which user stories to work on first, how much time and resources to allocate to them, and what contingencies to prepare for. By identifying and managing user story risk, you can reduce the chances of encountering surprises, delays, or defects that could jeopardize the project's success. Estimating user story risk also helps you to communicate the level of confidence and uncertainty to your stakeholders, and to align their expectations with the reality of the project.

2 How to estimate user story risk?

There are several methods and tools to estimate user story risk, depending on the context and preferences of your team and organization. Risk Poker is a variation of Planning Poker, where the team members use a set of cards or tokens to assign a risk level to each user story. A Risk Matrix is a visual tool that plots the user stories on a grid, based on their impact and likelihood of occurrence. Additionally, a Risk Burndown Chart is a graphical tool that tracks the changes in the total risk of the project over time. This chart shows the progress of the team in reducing the risk of the project, and can highlight any spikes or trends that might indicate new or emerging risks. All of these tools can help identify and prioritize user stories that are most risky, so they can be mitigated accordingly.

3 How to communicate user story risk?

Communicating user story risk is essential to keep the stakeholders informed and engaged in the project. To do this, use a common language and scale to describe the risk levels of the user stories, such as low, medium, high, or very high. Visual aids, such as color codes, icons, or labels, can also be used to indicate the risk levels of the user stories. Additionally, share the risk assessment and mitigation plans with the stakeholders and explain how they affect the scope, quality, and schedule of the project. It's important to update the risk status and feedback regularly and involve the stakeholders in the risk review and resolution process. For example, you can use a risk radar or a risk dashboard to show current and historical risk data and highlight any issues or actions that need attention or collaboration.

4 How to mitigate user story risk?

Mitigating user story risk means taking actions to reduce the impact or likelihood of the risk, or to eliminate it altogether. Strategies for this include splitting or refining stories that are too large, complex, or ambiguous into smaller, simpler chunks of work; prioritizing stories with high dependencies, assumptions, or unknowns; assigning the appropriate skills, resources, or tools; collaborating with stakeholders, experts, or users to clarify requirements; and monitoring stories with high potential for defects. Estimating user story risk is not a one-time activity, but a continuous practice that requires constant attention and evaluation. By applying these techniques and tools, you can improve your agile planning and prioritization, and deliver user stories that meet customer and stakeholder needs.

5 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?