How do you design effective scenarios for decision-making?

2 Identify the driving forces and uncertainties

The next step is to identify the driving forces and uncertainties that will shape the future. Driving forces are the trends, events, and factors that influence the situation and are likely to continue or change over time. Uncertainties are the unknowns or variables that could have a significant impact on the outcome, but are hard to predict or control. You can use different methods to generate and prioritize these elements, such as brainstorming, research, interviews, surveys, or SWOT analysis.

3 Create scenario frameworks and narratives

Once you have a list of driving forces and uncertainties, you can use them to create scenario frameworks and narratives. Scenario frameworks are simple diagrams that show how different combinations of uncertainties create different futures. For example, you can use a 2x2 matrix to plot two key uncertainties on two axes, and then label the four quadrants with descriptive names. Scenario narratives are stories that describe what happens in each scenario, how it affects the situation, and what are the implications and challenges. You can use a template or a structure to guide your narrative, such as who, what, when, where, why, and how.

4 Test and refine your scenarios

After you have created your scenario frameworks and narratives, you need to test and refine them to make sure they are plausible, consistent, and diverse. You can use different criteria to evaluate your scenarios, such as relevance, realism, contrast, coherence, and completeness. You can also use feedback, data, or evidence to validate or modify your scenarios. The goal is to create scenarios that are not too optimistic or pessimistic, not too similar or extreme, and not too vague or detailed.

5 Communicate and use your scenarios

The final step is to communicate and use your scenarios to inform your decision-making. You can use different formats and methods to present and share your scenarios, such as reports, presentations, videos, or games. You can also use different techniques to analyze and compare your scenarios, such as impact assessment, sensitivity analysis, or strategy mapping. The aim is to use your scenarios to identify the risks and opportunities, the assumptions and biases, and the actions and strategies that will help you achieve your desired future.

6 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?