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How do you create transportation scenarios for logistics?

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Creating transportation scenarios for logistics is a key skill for transportation planners who want to optimize the performance, cost, and sustainability of freight transportation systems. Transportation scenarios are hypothetical situations that reflect different assumptions, preferences, and uncertainties about the future demand, supply, and network conditions of freight transportation. By comparing and evaluating different scenarios, transportation planners can identify the best strategies and policies to improve the efficiency, reliability, and resilience of freight transportation and logistics. In this article, we will explain how you can create transportation scenarios for logistics using a simple four-step process.

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1 Define the scope and objectives

The first step in creating transportation scenarios for logistics is to define the scope and objectives of your analysis. You need to answer questions such as: What is the purpose and scope of your scenario analysis? What are the main research questions or hypotheses you want to test? Who are the stakeholders and users of your scenario analysis? What are the key performance indicators (KPIs) and criteria you will use to measure and compare the scenarios? Defining the scope and objectives will help you narrow down the focus and scope of your scenario analysis and ensure that it is relevant and useful for your intended audience.

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Sid Powar

Driving Supply Chain Excellence | Trusted Advisor | Strategic Partner | Investor
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At one of the large Telecommunications organizations that I led supply chain and transportation, I was in charge of Disaster Response and Resilience. Below were some considerations of how to prepare the scope: Purpose: Develop a transportation plan for emergency response in case of natural disasters. Research Questions: What routes and modes are most resilient during emergencies? How can we ensure timely delivery of critical supplies to affected areas? Stakeholders: Emergency response teams, government agencies, logistics providers. KPIs: Response time, availability of critical supplies, cost of emergency logistics.

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2 Identify the drivers and uncertainties

The second step in creating transportation scenarios for logistics is to identify the drivers and uncertainties that affect the future of freight transportation. Drivers are the factors that influence the demand and supply of freight transportation, such as population, economic growth, trade patterns, consumer preferences, technological innovation, environmental regulations, and infrastructure development. Uncertainties are the factors that are difficult to predict or control, such as natural disasters, political instability, market fluctuations, and disruptive events. You need to conduct a comprehensive environmental scan and stakeholder analysis to identify the drivers and uncertainties that are relevant and important for your scenario analysis.

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Sid Powar

Driving Supply Chain Excellence | Trusted Advisor | Strategic Partner | Investor
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When US-China trade wars resulted in higher tariffs in 2018, my job got exceedingly hard and I had to plan for qualifying other vendors and transportation routes to help reduce the impact to our overall costs.

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3 Generate and describe the scenarios

The third step in creating transportation scenarios for logistics is to generate and describe the scenarios based on the drivers and uncertainties you identified. You can use various methods and tools to generate scenarios, such as scenario planning, trend extrapolation, simulation modeling, expert judgment, and brainstorming. The number and type of scenarios you generate will depend on your scope and objectives, but generally, you should aim for at least two or three scenarios that represent plausible and contrasting futures of freight transportation. You should also describe the scenarios in a clear and consistent way, using narratives, diagrams, tables, or maps to illustrate the key features and assumptions of each scenario.

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Sid Powar

Driving Supply Chain Excellence | Trusted Advisor | Strategic Partner | Investor
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Tools are important in scenario planning but without the right understanding of factors affecting transportation costs the scenarios fail quickly as such it is important to map out the steps and variables in your processes before you spend time generating scenarios.

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4 Analyze and evaluate the scenarios

The fourth and final step in creating transportation scenarios for logistics is to analyze and evaluate the scenarios using your KPIs and criteria. You need to estimate and compare the impacts and implications of each scenario on the performance, cost, and sustainability of freight transportation and logistics. You can use various methods and tools to analyze and evaluate scenarios, such as impact analysis, sensitivity analysis, cost-benefit analysis, multi-criteria analysis, and scenario ranking. The results of your analysis and evaluation will help you draw insights and conclusions about the strengths and weaknesses of each scenario, the opportunities and threats they pose, and the recommendations and actions they suggest.

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5 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?

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How do you create transportation scenarios for logistics?

1

2

3

4

5

1 Define the scope and objectives

2 Identify the drivers and uncertainties

3 Generate and describe the scenarios

4 Analyze and evaluate the scenarios

5 Here’s what else to consider

Transportation Planning

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How do you create transportation scenarios for logistics?

1

2

3

4

5

1 Define the scope and objectives

2 Identify the drivers and uncertainties

3 Generate and describe the scenarios

4 Analyze and evaluate the scenarios

5 Here’s what else to consider

Transportation Planning

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