How do you apply a theory of change to your project?

1 Define your problem

The first step is to define the problem or challenge that your project aims to address. What is the current situation and why is it undesirable? Who are the affected stakeholders and what are their needs and interests? What are the root causes and contributing factors of the problem? You can use a problem tree or a fishbone diagram to visualize the problem and its causes.

2 Develop your goal

The next step is to develop your goal or vision of the desired change that your project will contribute to. What is the long-term impact that you want to achieve and how will it improve the situation of the stakeholders? How will you measure and verify the impact? You can use a goal statement or a vision statement to articulate your goal and its indicators.

3 Identify your outcomes

The third step is to identify the outcomes or changes that need to happen in order to achieve your goal. What are the specific and measurable changes in behavior, knowledge, attitude, or condition that you expect to see among the stakeholders as a result of your project? How will they lead to the impact? You can use an outcome map or a logic model to show the causal links between the outcomes and the impact.

4 Design your outputs

The fourth step is to design your outputs or deliverables that will produce the outcomes. What are the tangible products or services that your project will produce or provide to the stakeholders? How will they address their needs and interests? How will they influence the outcomes? You can use an output table or a logframe to describe your outputs and their indicators.

5 Plan your activities

The fifth step is to plan your activities or actions that will generate the outputs. What are the specific tasks or processes that your project will undertake to produce or deliver the outputs? Who will be responsible for them and when will they be completed? What resources and inputs will they require? You can use an activity schedule or a Gantt chart to plan your activities and their timelines.

6 Test your assumptions

The final step is to test your assumptions or hypotheses that underpin your theory of change. What are the external factors or conditions that may affect your project's success or failure? How likely are they to occur and how will they influence your logic and vision? How can you mitigate the risks or leverage the opportunities? You can use an assumption table or a risk matrix to analyze your assumptions and their implications.

7 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?