How do you analyze program logic models and theories of change?

1 Logic models

A logic model is a visual representation of the inputs, activities, outputs, outcomes, and impacts of a program. It allows you to understand the causal relationships between the different elements of a program and how they lead to the desired results. To analyze a logic model, you need to ask yourself if the inputs are sufficient and appropriate for the activities; if the activities are consistent and aligned with the program objectives; if the outputs are specific and measurable, and do they reflect the activities; if the outcomes are realistic and relevant, and do they address the program problem or need; and if the impacts are long-term and sustainable, and do they contribute to the program vision or mission. Identifying these resources, processes, assumptions, indicators, and measures of success can help you understand your program better.

2 Theories of change

A theory of change is a narrative explanation of how and why a program works. It outlines the assumptions, context, and evidence that support the logic model, as well as the pathways and mechanisms that connect the outputs and outcomes. Such a theory can help articulate the rationale, purpose, and value of your program, as well as how it responds to the needs and interests of stakeholders. To analyze a theory of change, you should ask yourself questions such as: does it explain the problem or need that the program addresses, and the context and conditions that affect it? Does it specify the outcomes and impacts that the program aims to achieve, and the assumptions and risks that influence them? Does it demonstrate the evidence and data that support the logic model, and the sources and methods that verify them? Does it identify the stakeholders and partners involved in or affected by the program, and their roles and expectations? And does it communicate the value proposition and unique contribution of the program, as well as how it differs from other alternatives?

3 Comparing logic models and theories of change

Logic models and theories of change are complementary tools that can help you design, implement, and evaluate your program. However, they have different strengths and limitations, so you should use them according to your needs and preferences. For instance, logic models are more concise and visual, while theories of change are more detailed and narrative. Logic models are more focused on the what and how of a program, while theories of change are more focused on the why and who of a program. Furthermore, logic models are more useful for planning and monitoring a program, while theories of change are more useful for learning and adapting a program. Additionally, logic models are more standardized and structured, while theories of change are more flexible and contextual.

4 Using logic models and theories of change

Logic models and theories of change can help you improve your program performance and evaluation by providing you with a structured framework to guide your actions and decisions. These models can clarify your program goals and objectives, and ensure they are aligned with your vision and mission. Additionally, they can identify inputs, activities, outputs, outcomes, and impacts, as well as explain assumptions, context, and evidence in order to validate the logic model. Engaging stakeholders and partners is also important to understand their needs and interests. Finally, these models can be used to communicate your program value and impact in comparison to other alternatives.

5 Updating logic models and theories of change

Logic models and theories of change are not static, but rather dynamic and evolving. Therefore, you should update them regularly based on feedback and data from program implementation and evaluation. Updating your logic models and theories of change can help you reflect on progress and performance, adapt to changes in the environment, learn from experience and evidence, enhance stakeholder and partner engagement, and improve communication and reporting. Ultimately, it will allow you to adjust your program inputs, activities, outputs, outcomes, and impacts accordingly while also sharing results and lessons learned with your audience.

6 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?