How can you use velocity metrics to forecast your product backlog?

Estimating your backlog items is the first step in forecasting with precision and insight ??. Utilize a blend of estimation techniques like planning poker, t-shirt sizing, or the Fibonacci sequence to assign a relative value to each task, factoring in effort, risk, and uncertainty ??. Engage the whole team in this process to leverage diverse perspectives and foster collective ownership ??. Remember, estimates are not set in stone; they should be revisited and refined as new information emerges, ensuring your backlog remains a true reflection of the journey ahead ??.

Team Velocity is a key input for planning and predicting product delivery timelines. Velocity metrics provides baseline for predicting future work that enables stakeholders to prioritize and execute product backlog.

The estimate is the best meaningful guess by the "team". Imagine you have a lot of cars lined up. Now take "velocity" and a "product backlog." and let's put them together! Imagine you're racing your toy cars regularly, and you're keeping track of how far they go each time (that's your velocity). You also have this plan of what races you want to do next (that's your product backlog). Estimating your backlog items involves guessing how long each task takes and then figuring out when you might finish them all based on those guesses. It's like predicting when you'll complete your to-do list by thinking about the time each task needs.

Alternative approaches for estimating backlog items include: Categorizing items into buckets according to their complexity, assessing items by comparing them to a reference item to ascertain their relative sizes and complexities. Additionally, prioritizing items based on their potential value to the customer or alignment with strategic goals is also an effective method.

The first step is to estimate the backlog and categorize the items as per importance and complexity, and also to find the reasons leading to backlog to minimize the risk for future

Historical Data: Look at the team's historical data, specifically the number of story points or units of work completed in previous sprints. This is your team's velocity. Average Velocity: Calculate the average velocity over a few past sprints to provide a baseline for forecasting.

Break down your product backlog items (usually user stories) into smaller, estimable tasks. Use the chosen unit of measurement to assign estimates to these tasks. For example, you might use a Fibonacci sequence (1, 2, 3, 5, 8, etc.) for story points. Choose a fixed time frame, typically the duration of a sprint (e.g., two weeks). Over several past sprints (e.g., the last 3-4 sprints), calculate the average velocity by summing the individual velocities and dividing by the number of sprints. Factors such as team composition, experience, and external dependencies can influence velocity. It's important to note that velocity is not a static metric, it can fluctuate over time.

Another valuable aspect of tracking velocity is the ability to observe how a team develops over time. If a team consistently increases its velocity, it can be inferred that the team is learning to work together better and incrementally improving its performance. Conversely, if a team’s velocity is consistently decreasing, it can signal a problem with the teams performance that could be investigated in the sprint retrospective.

Team's velocity can give an estimate about team's performance and sprints to complete work units. But it is a variable factor and can be influenced by several things

Team velocity is a guide for estimation and not carved in stone. Simple steps to arrive at a logical correct number can be: 1. Track the amount of work (usually in story points or estimated hours) your team completes in each sprint or iteration. 2. Establish a baseline velocity by averaging the completed work over several sprints. I usually suggest to take an average of 3-5 sprints for good estimate. 3. Consider adjusting for outliers (e.g., unusually high or low sprints) to get a more accurate representation.

You can use this equation to create a guideline for the team to work toward, but this is only a guideline, and there are many factors that you need to be aware of. Other factors to consider for greater accuracy would be: How complex is the work remaining? Has the team completed similar work previously and how long ago was this? Is the team focused on this as their sole project or are there competing projects? What is the current state of the team physically and mentally? If, in the last 2 sprints, the team gave its all to catch up, is that a velocity you can still plan for? What else is happening in the organization that could impact the team doing the work? The true forecast is about knowing the people, the work and then the velocity.

Velocity-based Forecasting: Use your team's velocity to forecast when the backlog will be completed. Divide the total estimated effort (in story points or other units) by the team's average velocity to get an approximate number of sprints required. Sprint Duration: Consider the sprint duration when calculating the backlog completion time. For example, if your team operates on two-week sprints, multiply the number of sprints by two to estimate the time in weeks.

Divide the total remaining story points in the backlog by the team's average velocity. This gives a rough estimate of the number of sprints needed to complete the backlog. Use a formula: Backlog completion time = Total units of work remaining / Velocity

Necessario utilizar algumas métricas: Tempo médio de conclus?o de tarefas:?Esta métrica é calculada dividindo o tempo total gasto em todas as tarefas pelo número de tarefas. Tempo médio de conclus?o de tarefas por tipo:?Esta métrica é calculada dividindo o tempo total gasto em todas as tarefas de um determinado tipo pelo número de tarefas desse tipo. Tempo médio de conclus?o de tarefas por prioridade:?Esta métrica é calculada dividindo o tempo total gasto em todas as tarefas de uma determinada prioridade pelo número de tarefas dessa prioridade. Criar uma classificacao das tarefas com base em sua complexidade e tempo estimado.Usar métricas de velocidade para avaliar o impacto de mudan?as na lista de pendências Assunto bastante amplo.

Vejo exemplos diaso diariamente, pois meu apartamento fica ao lado de jma obra de um prédio que esta se levantando e todos os dias da minha janela vejo o gráfico de estimativa de conclus?o de tarefas do dia e da semana, normalmente apresentado pelo gestor responsável que lidera os operários da obra! Essa mecanica permite avaliar de perto possíveis desvios de tempo, antes mesmo deles acontecerem!

Regular Reviews: Periodically review your progress and adjust the forecast based on the team's actual velocity and any changes in scope or priorities. Retrospectives: Conduct retrospectives to analyze what went well and what could be improved in terms of estimating, planning, and executing work. Use these insights to refine future forecasts. Adapt to Change: Be flexible in adapting to changes in priorities, scope, or unexpected challenges. Adjust the forecast accordingly, and communicate changes transparently with stakeholders.

As a I'm acutely aware of the need for adaptable backlogs. To stay on track, we employ a three-pronged approach: Regular pulse checks: Every two weeks, we refine backlogs, re-estimate tasks, and update our projected timelines based on the team's latest pace. Burnup charts provide visual tracking, helping us identify and address roadblocks before they derail progress. Post-sprint learning: After each sprint, we dissect what worked, what didn't, and how it affected our velocity. This data-driven introspection helps us constantly refine our forecasting and identify areas for future improvement. Open communication and collaboration: A culture of transparency empowers team members to raise concerns about unrealistic deadlines or roadblocks.

This is crucial in game development, because sometimes release windows or certain events make it crucial to not just adjust the timeframe based on the velocity, but sometimes you even have to adjust the scope of the complete backlog for the release., because you have to move certain features into the live roadmap.

Regularly review and fine-tune your projections concerning backlog items. This involves revisiting initial estimates, taking into account progress made, and adjusting forecasts based on emerging insights, changing priorities, or unforeseen challenges. This iterative approach ensures that your planning remains dynamic and aligned with the evolving needs and circumstances of the project. Additionally, stay attuned to external factors such as market trends, customer feedback, and technological advancements. Integrating external insights into your forecasting process ensures that your product strategy remains responsive to the broader landscape, contributing to the overall success of the project.

A previs?o deve considerar também aspectos para determinados produtos que trazem complexidade em seu desenvolvimento. Dependendo da característica do produto, independente da quebra correta da história, um único item pode elevar bastante o tempo investido e, logo, a métrica é particularmente diferente. Isso ocorre frequentemente em, por exemplo, produtos financeiros, onde é necessário considerar n?o só aspectos de mercado, mas também o atendimento a obriga??es legais/fiscais/regulatórias, entre outros.

Oh, man (or AI). Velocity is a VANITY metric; it has been abused for so many years and doesn't determine the value created at all. It's a tool for the team, just for the team, not for you as a PM. Velocity is like trying to forecast the weather—it's your weather channel, but it doesn't mean it can't be wrong. If you rely too much on it, you will miss an opportunity to have a barbecue and meet your friends and family, missing the value that could have been created. Focus on what matters.

External factors: Consider holidays, vacations, or planned events that might impact team availability and velocity. Individual capacity: Account for individual team member's capacity and potential time off. Uncertainty: Acknowledge that velocity is an estimate, not a guarantee. It's important to communicate uncertainty and be prepared to adjust plans as needed. Velocity trends: Track velocity over time to identify patterns, improvements, or potential challenges. Visualizations: Use tools like burndown charts or release plans to visualize progress and forecasts. Team input: Gather feedback from the team to understand their perspectives on velocity and backlog estimations.

Predictability in Backlog is every Product team's nightmare and dream! The only magic wand from my experience is a repeated, and rigorous review against the focus, and Product outcomes!

My thoughts are aligned with Eddi Phou's response here. Scrum based story point estimation was a great step forward from PMI waterfall approaches but it is deeply flawed for a number of reasons and should be avoided. I would advocate an approach of Now/Next/Later backlog management and estimate each project for duration in days or weeks with a confidence interval applied. The duration should be based on the full team working on a project. No per engineer hour estimate to avoid the "can 9 woman can make a baby in a month?" fallacy.

Velocity is an important metric for measuring a team's performance in agile software development. However, it is crucial to recognize that velocity is just one piece of the puzzle. It should be considered alongside other metrics and qualitative assessments to get a holistic view of the team's capabilities and progress.