How can you use scenario planning to prepare for the future?

1 Define the scope

The first step is to define the scope of your scenario planning exercise. What is the main question or challenge you want to address? What is the time horizon you want to consider? Who are the key stakeholders and decision-makers involved? How will you use the scenarios to inform your strategy? These questions will help you set the boundaries and objectives of your scenario planning process.

2 Identify the drivers

The next step is to identify the drivers of change that could affect your future. These are the factors or forces that influence your situation, such as social, technological, economic, environmental, or political trends. You can use various sources of information, such as research reports, expert interviews, surveys, or brainstorming sessions, to gather and analyze the drivers. You should prioritize the drivers based on their impact and uncertainty, and select the most relevant and critical ones for your scenarios.

3 Develop the scenarios

The third step is to develop the scenarios based on the drivers you selected. A scenario is a plausible and coherent story that describes how the future could unfold, given certain assumptions and conditions. You can use different methods to create your scenarios, such as matrix, morphological, or intuitive logics. The aim is to generate a diverse and contrasting set of scenarios that cover a range of possibilities and perspectives. You should give each scenario a descriptive name and a summary, and include the key events, actors, and outcomes.

4 Analyze the implications

The fourth step is to analyze the implications of each scenario for your organization, industry, or sector. What are the opportunities and threats that each scenario presents? How would you respond or adapt to each scenario? What are the common or divergent themes across the scenarios? How robust or resilient is your current strategy under each scenario? You can use various tools, such as SWOT analysis, gap analysis, or risk assessment, to evaluate the implications and identify the strategic actions or options.

5 Communicate and monitor

The final step is to communicate and monitor your scenarios and their implications. You should share your scenarios with your stakeholders and decision-makers, and use them as a basis for dialogue and learning. You should also monitor the external environment and track the signals or indicators that suggest which scenario is more likely or emerging. You should update and revise your scenarios as new information or events occur, and adjust your strategy accordingly.

Scenario planning is a powerful and flexible tool that can help you prepare for the future in a complex and uncertain world. By using scenario planning, you can enhance your strategic thinking, foresight, and agility, and create more resilient and adaptable strategies for your organization, industry, or sector.

6 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?