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How can you use scenario planning to anticipate future trends in your brand strategy?

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Scenario planning is a creative problem solving method that helps you imagine different possible futures for your brand and how to adapt to them. It can help you identify opportunities, risks, and uncertainties that may affect your brand strategy in the long term. In this article, you will learn how to use scenario planning to anticipate future trends in your brand strategy.

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1 What is scenario planning?

Scenario planning is a process of creating and exploring multiple plausible scenarios of the future based on various factors and drivers of change. Scenarios are not predictions or forecasts, but rather stories that describe how the world might evolve in different ways. Scenario planning helps you challenge your assumptions, broaden your perspective, and test your strategic options.

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2 Why use scenario planning for brand strategy?

Brand strategy is the long-term plan for how you want your brand to be perceived, positioned, and differentiated in the market. It guides your decisions on your brand identity, value proposition, target audience, communication, and experience. Brand strategy is influenced by both internal and external factors, such as your vision, mission, values, goals, capabilities, resources, competitors, customers, trends, and events. Scenario planning can help you anticipate how these factors might change in the future and how they might affect your brand strategy.

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DuBose Cole

Strategist // Founder at New Classic
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Every brand is planned against a specific scenario. It's the view of the world we think is likely and that the brand will survive against. However, recognizing this fact and explicitly doing it gives you a greater probability that a brand can adapt and succeed.

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3 How to use scenario planning for brand strategy?

Scenario planning for brand strategy involves four main steps: defining the scope, identifying the key drivers, developing the scenarios, and applying the scenarios.

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Samantha Rideout

Product Marketing @ Turquoise Health
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Scenario planning future-proofs your brand by helping you proactively navigate pivots. When the scope, key drivers, scenarios, and applications are well-defined, it provides the latitude to adjust in real time without losing sight of the ultimate vision for the brand strategy.

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DuBose Cole

Strategist // Founder at New Classic
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Every brand has assumptions built into it: from an assumed direction for audience behaviour or needs, through to how defensible a value proposition is against the market. To scenario plan, begin with identifying the scenarios that would devalue an existing or potential brand strategy and identify how to monitor them. Consider how to defend against those as you build the brand strategy and then continuously monitor them to see how potential scenarios are unfolding.

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4 # Defining the scope

The first step is to define the scope of your scenario planning exercise. You need to decide what is the main question or challenge that you want to address with your scenarios, such as how to enter a new market, how to respond to a disruptive innovation, or how to adapt to a social or environmental change. You also need to decide what is the time horizon for your scenarios, such as 5, 10, or 20 years. The scope should be clear, relevant, and realistic for your brand strategy.

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5 # Identifying the key drivers

The second step is to identify the key drivers of change that might affect your brand strategy in the future. These are the factors that have a high impact and a high uncertainty on your brand and your market. You can use various sources of information, such as research, data, expert opinions, customer insights, and trend analysis, to identify the key drivers. You can also use tools such as PESTEL analysis, SWOT analysis, or Porter's five forces analysis, to categorize the key drivers into political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal aspects.

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6 # Developing the scenarios

The third step is to develop the scenarios based on the key drivers. You can use different methods, such as brainstorming, storytelling, or matrix analysis, to create and describe the scenarios. A common method is to use a matrix analysis, where you select two key drivers that have the most influence and uncertainty on your brand strategy and create a 2x2 matrix with four quadrants. Each quadrant represents a different scenario based on the combination of the two key drivers. For example, if you choose economic growth and customer behavior as your key drivers, you can create four scenarios: high growth and loyal customers, high growth and fickle customers, low growth and loyal customers, and low growth and fickle customers. You can then name, narrate, and illustrate each scenario with details, such as the main characteristics, opportunities, threats, and implications for your brand strategy.

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7 # Applying the scenarios

The fourth step is to apply the scenarios to your brand strategy. You can use the scenarios to evaluate and refine your current brand strategy, or to generate and explore new strategic options. You can also use the scenarios to identify and prioritize the actions, resources, and capabilities that you need to implement your brand strategy in each scenario. You can use tools such as SWOT analysis, gap analysis, or risk analysis, to assess the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of your brand strategy in each scenario. You can also use tools such as stakeholder analysis, customer journey mapping, or value proposition canvas, to design and deliver your brand strategy in each scenario.

Scenario planning is a powerful and flexible tool that can help you anticipate future trends in your brand strategy. It can help you create and explore multiple plausible scenarios of the future based on various factors and drivers of change. It can help you challenge your assumptions, broaden your perspective, and test your strategic options. It can help you identify opportunities, risks, and uncertainties that may affect your brand strategy in the long term.

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8 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?

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How can you use scenario planning to anticipate future trends in your brand strategy?

1

2

3

4

5

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1 What is scenario planning?

2 Why use scenario planning for brand strategy?

3 How to use scenario planning for brand strategy?

4 # Defining the scope

5 # Identifying the key drivers

6 # Developing the scenarios

7 # Applying the scenarios

8 Here’s what else to consider

Brand Strategy

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How can you use scenario planning to anticipate future trends in your brand strategy?

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1 What is scenario planning?

2 Why use scenario planning for brand strategy?

3 How to use scenario planning for brand strategy?

4 # Defining the scope

5 # Identifying the key drivers

6 # Developing the scenarios

7 # Applying the scenarios

8 Here’s what else to consider

Brand Strategy

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