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How can you incorporate economic considerations into scenario planning?

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Scenario planning is a useful tool for transportation planners to explore how different factors and uncertainties may affect the future of mobility and infrastructure. However, scenarios are not just about imagining possible futures, they are also about evaluating their implications and trade-offs. One of the most important aspects to consider is the economic impact of different scenarios, both in terms of costs and benefits. How can you incorporate economic considerations into scenario planning? Here are some tips and examples.

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Tiff Lynch

Freelance transport planner/strategist and Policy Panel member of the Transport Planning Society
Jef Lacson

CPA, CISA, CIA, CLSSGB, CII-Award, FICD, MBE, ASEAN CPA | Regional CFO | Driving Digital Finance Strategies in Emerging…
Marcus Wigan

1 Define your objectives and criteria

Before you start creating and comparing scenarios, you need to have a clear idea of what you want to achieve and how you will measure it. What are the goals and objectives of your transportation plan? What are the key performance indicators (KPIs) that reflect your desired outcomes? How will you weigh and prioritize different criteria, such as efficiency, equity, sustainability, resilience, and innovation? Having a well-defined framework will help you align your scenarios with your vision and values, and make them more consistent and comparable.

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Tiff Lynch

Freelance transport planner/strategist and Policy Panel member of the Transport Planning Society
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Simple: ensure you have an economist involved - one who will understand the objectives behind the scenario planning exercise and can also add value by explaining other benefits that get achieved through the projects that emerge. In scenario planning, cross-disciplinary inputs are very important. Input from professional disciplines (beyond just those that immediately come to mind) can help make sure the scenario planning work is grounded in reality. Cast your net wider than the obvious! PS I am not an economist.

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Chito Rios Fallarme, MBA

NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY - THRIVING IN DYNAMIC MARKETS. DM for Consultation. Portfolio Management and Investment Advisory. Advisor to Business Owners and Founders.
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The economic scenario must precede all planning information. What does the economic environment look like, not just at present, but over a relevant planning horizon? What is the objective, empirical industry outlook within that? What are problems and opportunities because of it? What solutions can the company provide that is unique to the industry and among its competitors?

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UTIEYIN SHOLUWA

Transport Manager | Project Management | MEAL | Operations Manager | CIOTA | CILT
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The economic environment has s far reaching influence and impact in determining strategies. Carry out a SWOT analysis. This will equip you with the necessary data for objective decisions. Also carry out constant trend analysis and be proactive in planing by studying the micro and macro elements of the economy especially as it affect your business and try to factor these in your plans.

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Fitsum Bayisa

Logistics/Fleet /supply chain/procurement/cement procurement/Dispatch/ Distribution;coordinator
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Consider the economic conditions that might impact competitors and their strategies. Analyze economic indicators specific to your industry or sector, such as commodity prices, global demand, or regulatory changes

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2 Estimate costs and benefits

For each scenario, you need to estimate the costs and benefits associated with the transportation system and its components. Costs may include capital, operating, maintenance, and external costs, such as environmental and social impacts. Benefits may include travel time savings, safety improvements, accessibility, and economic growth. You can use various methods and tools to estimate costs and benefits, such as cost-benefit analysis (CBA), cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA), or multi-criteria analysis (MCA). Depending on the level of detail and data availability, you may need to make some assumptions and use some proxies or indicators to approximate costs and benefits.

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Fitsum Bayisa

Logistics/Fleet /supply chain/procurement/cement procurement/Dispatch/ Distribution;coordinator
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Evaluate the impact of currency fluctuations on costs, pricing, and international competitiveness. Account for global economic trends, trade policies, and geopolitical considerations that may influence the economic environment Assess the potential impact of varying employment rates on consumer confidence and demand Evaluate how different economic scenarios may influence stock market trends and investor sentiment.

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3 Compare and rank scenarios

Once you have estimated the costs and benefits of each scenario, you can compare and rank them according to your objectives and criteria. You can use different techniques and metrics to compare and rank scenarios, such as net present value (NPV), benefit-cost ratio (BCR), internal rate of return (IRR), or scorecards. You can also use sensitivity analysis or risk analysis to test how robust and resilient your scenarios are to changes in key parameters or uncertainties. Comparing and ranking scenarios will help you identify the most desirable and feasible options, as well as the trade-offs and synergies among them.

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Fitsum Bayisa

Logistics/Fleet /supply chain/procurement/cement procurement/Dispatch/ Distribution;coordinator
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Assess potential changes in interest rates and credit availability that could affect capital investments. : Evaluate how different economic scenarios may influence stock market trends and investor sentiment

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4 Communicate and engage

Finally, you need to communicate and engage with your stakeholders and audiences about your scenarios and their economic implications. You need to present your scenarios in a clear and compelling way, using visualizations, narratives, and interactive tools. You need to explain your assumptions, methods, and results, and highlight the strengths and weaknesses of each scenario. You also need to solicit feedback and input from your stakeholders and audiences, and incorporate their perspectives and preferences into your decision-making process. Communicating and engaging will help you build trust and support for your transportation plan, and foster a shared vision for the future.

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Jef Lacson

CPA, CISA, CIA, CLSSGB, CII-Award, FICD, MBE, ASEAN CPA | Regional CFO | Driving Digital Finance Strategies in Emerging Markets (Asia & Pacific)
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Engaging stakeholders is crucial. When crafting plans, presenting them clearly and compellingly is key. It's not just about data; it's about storytelling, making it relatable. Incorporating feedback ensures a plan that resonates with the community, fostering trust and collective ownership of the vision. It's the bridge between a solid plan and its successful

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5 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?

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Marcus Wigan
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My own perspective is to posit a future scenarios, and work backwards to determine what the pivotal points are in the trace back to the present that either stop the future scenario in its tracks, or prove critical for a path or path to be found. Economics is frequently a blocker in this sense.

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How can you incorporate economic considerations into scenario planning?

1

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3

4

5

1 Define your objectives and criteria

2 Estimate costs and benefits

3 Compare and rank scenarios

4 Communicate and engage

5 Here’s what else to consider

Transportation Planning

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How can you incorporate economic considerations into scenario planning?

1

2

3

4

5

1 Define your objectives and criteria

2 Estimate costs and benefits

3 Compare and rank scenarios

4 Communicate and engage

5 Here’s what else to consider

Transportation Planning

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