How can you improve decision making in your small business with the Delphi method?

1 What is the Delphi method?

The Delphi method was developed in the 1950s by the RAND Corporation as a way to forecast the impact of technology on warfare. Since then, it has been widely used in various fields such as education, health, engineering, and business. The Delphi method is based on the premise that the collective judgment of a group of experts is more accurate and reliable than the individual judgment of a single expert. The Delphi method also reduces the influence of biases, conflicts, or dominant personalities that may affect the quality of group discussions.

2 How does the Delphi method work?

The Delphi method consists of four main steps. Firstly, you must define the problem or question you want to solve or answer with the help of experts. To do this, ensure it is clear, specific, and relevant to your business goals and context. Secondly, select and recruit a panel of experts who have sufficient knowledge, experience, and diversity on the topic. You can use online platforms, professional networks, or referrals to find them; usually between 10 and 20 experts is ideal. Thirdly, design and administer a series of questionnaires or surveys to collect their opinions and feedback. The first questionnaire should ask open-ended questions that allow the experts to express their views freely and provide reasons or evidence for their answers. The subsequent questionnaires should present the summary of the previous responses, the degree of agreement or disagreement among the experts, and any new questions or issues that emerge from the analysis. Lastly, analyze and report the results of the questionnaires and measure the level of consensus or divergence among the experts. Statistical methods such as mean, median, mode, or standard deviation can be used to measure central tendency and variability; while qualitative methods such as thematic analysis can identify main themes and arguments of answers. The Delphi method usually ends when there is a high degree of consensus among the experts, when there is no significant change in the answers, or when a predetermined number of rounds is reached.

3 What are the benefits of the Delphi method?

The Delphi method can help you improve your decision making in your small business in several ways. It can provide valuable insights and perspectives from experts who may not be available or accessible otherwise, and it can help identify and explore the key factors, assumptions, uncertainties, and scenarios that affect your problem or question. Additionally, it can help generate and evaluate alternative solutions or options that may not be obvious or conventional. Furthermore, the Delphi method can increase the credibility and validity of your decisions by showing that they are based on the collective wisdom and experience of the experts. Lastly, it can foster a collaborative and constructive culture among the experts and your team by encouraging them to share their opinions and feedback in a respectful and confidential manner.

4 What are the challenges of the Delphi method?

The Delphi method can be time-consuming and costly to conduct, and it can be difficult to ensure the quality and reliability of experts. Furthermore, it can be hard to achieve consensus or a clear outcome with the experts' diverging opinions, and the results may be too general or abstract to apply to your specific situation. Additionally, it may not account for all the possible variables or contingencies. Therefore, these limitations and challenges must be taken into account when utilizing the Delphi method.

5 How can you use the Delphi method effectively?

The Delphi method can be an effective tool for small businesses, but there are certain tips and best practices to consider. First, define the problem or question clearly and precisely, and make sure it is relevant and feasible for the business context and goals. Additionally, choose and recruit a panel of experts carefully, ensuring they represent a diverse range of perspectives. Design and administer the questionnaires professionally, respecting the anonymity and confidentiality of the experts. When analyzing and reporting results, it's important to do so objectively and transparently. Lastly, apply the results critically and creatively, using them as a source of guidance and inspiration.

6 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?