How can you identify and avoid blind spots when assessing strategic alternatives with Critical Thinking?

I find that blind spots and a lack of critical thought frequently arise in hierarchical organizations where the direction is set by HPPOs (highest paid person’s opinion). Although they may be acting on years of experience it does not necessarily mean they have a wide evidence base to draw on or the data to confirm what their instinct is telling them. This frequently leads to solutions being pushed through that are sub-optimal. Speaking truth to power and having the courage to challenge conventional wisdom can be game changing here.

Deep listening by leaders within the organisation is a great way to identify fresh insights or blind spots. Rarely do people get the opportunity to speak frankly about their own experience working in an organisation. This process can be aided by conducting interviews by independent people in a coaching style. Confidentiality must be protected and reporting of themes anonymised. People will then feel comfortable and open up unique perspectives which are like gold dust for forward thinking leaders.

Speak to people. You'll always be able to find blind spots when your getting feedback. Without feedback from varying stakeholders with different vested interests you'll always have blind spots. Better to have too much information and filter it then too little and making poor strategic decisions.

Para evitar pontos cegos ao avaliar alternativas estratégicas, adoto uma abordagem multidimensional. Primeiro, busco diversas perspectivas, convidando feedback de colegas de diferentes áreas e hierarquias. Também aplico a técnica de "pensar ao contrário", desafiando minhas próprias premissas e considerando o oposto do que acredito ser verdade. Realizo análises de cenário, contemplando o melhor e o pior caso, e utilizo simula??es para testar a viabilidade das estratégias sob condi??es variadas. Isso, combinado com uma revis?o constante de dados atuais e históricos, me ajuda a identificar tendências e padr?es que podem n?o ser imediatamente aparentes, minimizando a influência de vieses cognitivos.

Great. a lack of insight or awareness often persistent about a specific area of one's behavior or personality, typically because recognition of one's true feelings and motives would be painful.

Transformative mindsets to identify blind spots 1. actively seek diverse perspectives, 2. challenge assumptions 3. challenge potential biases Engaging in open dialogue, encouraging feedback, and conducting thorough research can help uncover hidden assumptions and areas of oversight.

Awesome Freud labeled a negative response to a psychological blind spot, engagement in a reaction formation process: “A method of transforming uncomfortable or unacceptable feelings into something more manageable the adoption of ideas and impulses opposed to one’s own” a behavior in which a person will attempt to hide his true feelings by demonstrating the exact opposite feelings. When aspects of a person’s thoughts and behaviors are out of keeping with the person’s ideal self-image, damaging their sense of worth or value, the behavior is ego-dystonic. You love someone with all your heart, yet they continuously question your love. You are a strict conservative, yet you date progressive liberals.

Blinds spots no doubt exist. Objectivity to a large extent will help eliminate the possibility of allowing blind spots influence our decisions. It's expected that professional use traditional means like getting the feedback or views from colleagues to test the credibility of the source used.

Look for Dominant Ideas. A dominant idea is the organizing theme in a way of looking at a situation. It is always present but also always undefined. A great way to find dominant ideas is to separate them from crucial factors. The difference between a dominant idea and a crucial factor is that the dominant idea organizes the situation. Whereas a crucial factor tethers it. In looking for the dominant idea one wants to know, 'why are we always looking at this thing in the same way.' In looking for crucial factors one wants to know, "what is holding up, what is keeping us to this old approach?"

By actively seeking diverse perspectives, questioning assumptions, considering potential biases and conducting thorough analysis.

It helps to have a set of North Star values. Usually these aren't 'technical' - they tend to be more about the mindset. Things to ask: 1) Will this get to the outcome? 2) Am I doing this because it's good for me or good for the whole? 3) If I walk away today, would I think this is still the best way to get to the outcome? 4) Let me run this past my nemesis! Best way to get out of one's echo chamber is to find those friendly critics and cultivate them. But retain one's own experience to know what advice to take or reject. Bias cannot be fully elimintated 100% of the time - but it can be mitigated by being cognizant and putting real checkpoints in place.

To minimizing confirmation bias: -Diverse Perspectives:Seek input from diverse backgrounds. -Devil's Advocate Role:Challenge assumptions with a critical perspective. -Information Gathering:Collect data from varied and conflicting sources. -Objective Criteria:Establish measurable benchmarks for evaluation. -Scenario Analysis:Consider multiple scenarios and potential outcomes. -External Review: Seek external input for fresh perspectives. -Mindfulness:Be aware of personal biases and consciously set them aside. -Structured Decision-Making:Follow a systematic, structured approach to decision-making. -Encourage Dissent:Foster an environment where dissenting opinions are welcomed. -Iterative Approach:Regularly revisit assumptions and alternatives.

I think confirmation bias comes mainly from emotions. It hurts our ego to be wrong about something. It is also sometimes hard to accept and defend the facts about something we don't like. I've found it helpful to try to notice my emotions. When I see them rising, i.e. I get "triggered", then I take a few steps back and try to find out a few things: 1. Am I competent enough? 2. Have I incorporated all the data? Do I disregard some of the data without any objective reason? 3. What do I personally lose/gain if my belief/hypothesis is wrong? If it is something, then I probably have a bias and should calm down and look at it objectively. The most important thing is to be accepting. We are all humans and make mistakes. Let's not be too harsh.

To avoid confirmation bias and enhance decision-making with critical thinking, actively seek diverse perspectives and sources of information. Challenge your own assumptions and beliefs, and be open to alternative viewpoints. A good practice is to actively play the role of a skeptic. Challenge your own ideas and arguments, seeking potential flaws or counterarguments. This helps uncover biases and encourages a more balanced perspective.

Write the expectation fist. Do the test... let reality judge the outcome. Remove inputs one by one - find the "critical" ingredients. Find the "off" switch. Find the "on" switch. Establish control.

Let's say you're in the market to buy a used car. You visit a dealership and the salesperson starts the negotiation by suggesting a price significantly higher than what you expected. This becomes the initial anchor for your perception of the car's value. To avoid the anchoring effect, you should refrain from immediately accepting or adjusting your expectations based solely on this initial price. Instead, do your own research, look up the market value for similar cars, and seek independent appraisals or opinions. By considering multiple sources of information and critically evaluating the validity of the anchor, you can make a more informed decision about the car's actual value, rather than being overly swayed by the initial suggestion.

While relying too heavily on your main point can sometimes lead to distortions in your argument, you still want it to be cohesive. New information always presents itself, especially data that may not support your first point. It is important to understand the nuances that are within complex problems and not outright assume the validity of everything you learn. Your understanding of the world has to be at least somewhat flexible for you to truly accept new, possibly conflicting information. The cliche of every story having two sides is an gross understatement. Every story has more perspectives than the actual eyes involved. The objective truth can only be found by examining as many as possible.

Measure proportion. After "on/off" is control is achieved... "portions" and "proportions" can be tested. Maybe 16% of ingredient A is enough... to get A+B=C outcome. In short - math. Methodical, mathematical modelling of each step. With adaptive calibration. And backwards compatibility...

This is where building mindfulness in as a leadership competency can greatly help you to pause and ask yourself some questions rather than acting the same way as you did previously which may not suit the current situation that has changed however your brain processes it as something similar to what you experienced before. When you pause and breathe you may decide to ask someone for their opinion. You are zooming out and practicing more inclusive leadership and getting diverse opinions.

One prominent historical example of overconfidence is the Bay of Pigs Invasion in 1961. This was an ill-fated attempt by the United States to overthrow the Cuban government led by Fidel Castro. The planners of the invasion, which included some top U.S. officials and members of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), were overconfident in their assessment of the situation. They underestimated the level of support for Castro's regime. This led to a poorly executed operation, resulting in a failure with significant political and diplomatic consequences for the United States. This is a stark reminder of the dangers of overestimating one's capabilities and underestimating the complexities and uncertainties of a situation. Do your homework!

Thanks a lot. Pay attention to your communication style. Be honest about your skills. Stop comparing yourself with others. Test your assumptions before declaring your decisions. Listen to others' feedback and concerns.

Stay humble, accept feedback, and continue to learn and grow. Establish open communication with customers and understand needs. Participate in regular training and keep up with industry trends. Always maintain a prudent assessment of your own abilities to provide more professional and considerate services.

Make sure to have the resources to absorb the damage... Or at least... some exit plan. It's not a loss if you can afford it. The models will improve over time, if you stay methodical.

Humility is the key to combat overconfidence. Because the little bit of knowledge we acquire is nothing compared to the sea of the unknown. We should always keep our minds open to learn and improve ourselves

Avoiding groupthink is hard. We're social creatures and it is in our biology to adhere to the group narrative. Most of us start to question even our judgement, when it is different. For me, the key is to first try to be in a better, more accepting and open to new ideas environment. This is important, because one of our fears, when sharing a controversial opinion, is that a conflict might arise, or that we will be pushed out of the social circle. The second important thing is to try and become confident in the opinion we want to express. This is achieved by gathering and thinking over more information about the subject. The last one is - don't be afraid of confrontation. It is not bad. I'd say it is quite important for our society.

Maintain independent thinking and look at problems from multiple perspectives. Actively seek different opinions and listen to all perspectives. Learn independently and expand your knowledge. Avoid blind obedience and encourage critical thinking. Adhere to personal values and not be swayed by group pressure.

What if the insights provided in the article seem to be ineffective? Please, consider the following suggestions: Alternative Perspectives: Promote diverse viewpoints and backgrounds in the assessment process to counter potential blind spots. Red Team Analysis: Employ a separate group to challenge and critique proposed strategies, identifying weaknesses and hidden blind spots. Scenario Planning: Use scenario planning to explore various future scenarios, uncovering potential blind spots and preparing for contingencies. Data-Driven Decision Making: Emphasize data-based decision-making to reduce the impact of subjective biases leading to blind spots.