How can you forecast medical device sales in hospital customer segments?

1 Identify your segments

The first step is to identify the different segments of hospitals that you want to target. Segmentation can be based on various criteria, such as size, location, specialty, ownership, affiliation, or purchasing behavior. For example, you might segment your market into small, medium, and large hospitals, or into urban, suburban, and rural hospitals. The goal is to group hospitals that have similar characteristics, needs, and preferences, and that respond similarly to your marketing and sales efforts.

2 Estimate your potential

The next step is to estimate the potential demand for your medical device in each segment. This can be done by using secondary data sources, such as industry reports, market research, or public databases, or by conducting primary research, such as surveys, interviews, or focus groups. You can also use historical data from your own sales records, or from competitors, to benchmark your performance and identify gaps and opportunities. The key is to quantify the size, growth, and share of each segment, and to assess the factors that influence their demand, such as trends, regulations, or innovations.

3 Define your criteria

The third step is to define criteria that reflect your business objectives, resources, and capabilities, as well as the attractiveness and competitiveness of each segment. This criteria should be used to evaluate and prioritize your segments. When determining the criteria, you could consider factors such as revenue potential, profitability, accessibility, and alignment. Revenue potential could be evaluated based on the number of customers, the average order value, and the frequency of purchase. Profitability could be determined by the cost of sales, the margin, and the lifetime value of customers. Accessibility could be based on distribution channels, decision-making process, and barriers to entry. Lastly, alignment should consider your value proposition, differentiation, and competitive advantage.

4 Score your segments

The fourth step is to score your segments based on the criteria that you defined. You can use a simple scoring system, such as assigning a value from 1 to 5 for each criterion, or a more sophisticated method, such as a weighted scoring matrix, where you assign different weights to each criterion according to their importance. The goal is to rank your segments from the most to the least attractive, and to identify the ones that offer the best return on investment.

5 Forecast your sales

The fifth step is to forecast your sales for each segment, based on the potential demand and the expected conversion rate. You can use different methods to do this, such as top-down, bottom-up, trend analysis, and scenario analysis. With top-down forecasting, you start with the total market size and apply a percentage to estimate your market share and sales volume. Bottom-up forecasting starts with the number of customers and multiplies by the average order value and frequency to estimate your sales volume and value. Trend analysis involves using historical data and trends to project future sales, taking into account seasonality, growth rates, and external factors. Lastly, scenario analysis requires creating different scenarios based on different assumptions and variables, such as best case, worst case, and most likely case.

6 Monitor and adjust

The final step is to monitor and adjust your sales forecast, based on the actual performance and feedback from your segments. You should track and measure your key performance indicators, such as sales volume, value, margin, growth, and share, and compare them with your forecast and goals. You should also collect and analyze data from your customers, such as satisfaction, loyalty, retention, and referrals, and use it to improve your value proposition and sales strategy. You should also be aware of any changes or challenges in your segments, such as new entrants, new regulations, or new technologies, and adapt your forecast accordingly.

7 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?