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How can you evaluate system reliability during the early stages of development?

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Reliability is a key attribute of any system, especially in complex and safety-critical domains. However, evaluating reliability during the early stages of development can be challenging, as the system design and requirements are still evolving. In this article, you will learn some practical methods and tools that can help you assess and improve system reliability before it is too late.

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Garima Awasthi

Lead Technology at Successive Technologies
Aymen FARHANI

1 Define reliability goals

The first step in evaluating system reliability is to define your reliability goals and metrics. Reliability goals are the desired performance levels of the system under specified conditions and time periods. Reliability metrics are the quantitative measures that indicate how well the system meets the reliability goals. Some common reliability metrics are mean time between failures (MTBF), failure rate, availability, and reliability function. You should align your reliability goals and metrics with the stakeholder needs, system requirements, and operational scenarios.

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Aymen FARHANI
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Use fault tree analysis (FTA) to systematically analyze the reliability of the system. FTA identifies potential failures and their causes through a graphical representation of scenarios leading to the system failure. It helps prioritize critical components, identify weaknesses, and develop strategies to improve reliability.

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Indra Purnama

Global RAM based Capital Spares Specialist
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Define reliability goals based on reliability and availability modelling. Industry Benchmark such as Solomon is commonly used to set up the goals and is mapped against company reliability modelling

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Jaya Sharma Awasthi

Senior Backend Engineer | Node JS | Angular JS | React JS | Next JS | Javascript | GraphQL Certified | DevOps | Docker | Typescript | MySql | Mongodb |HTML | CSS
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?? Mimic real-world conditions. ??Identify potential failures. ??Assess performance through models. ?? Estimate system lifespan. ??Analyze failure modes and their impact.

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2 Identify failure modes and effects

The next step is to identify the potential failure modes and effects of the system and its components. Failure modes are the ways that the system or its parts can fail to perform their intended functions. Failure effects are the consequences of the failure modes on the system performance, safety, and mission. You can use techniques such as failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), fault tree analysis (FTA), or reliability block diagrams (RBD) to systematically identify and analyze the failure modes and effects of your system.

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Indra Purnama

Global RAM based Capital Spares Specialist
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Reliability activities based on the goals set up in the 1st step should be defined and implemented consistent with the size/scope of the project (fit for purpose). The risk based approached is to be applied to define the equipment strategy. The development of equipment strategy could be done through the following route RAM - RCM/RBI - upload to CMMS/Inspection program. RAM has to be LIVE by revisiting all the reliability assumption, production profile, operational and maintenance data once a year.

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3 Estimate failure probabilities and severities

Once you have identified the failure modes and effects, you need to estimate their probabilities and severities. Probability is the likelihood of a failure mode occurring in a given time or operational cycle. Severity is the degree of impact of a failure effect on the system or its environment. You can use historical data, expert judgment, testing results, or analytical models to estimate the failure probabilities and severities. You should also consider the uncertainty and variability of the estimates and use appropriate methods to handle them.

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Indra Purnama

Global RAM based Capital Spares Specialist
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Forecast production rates and volumetric availability over the asset lifecycle Identify system / equipment bottlenecks in terms of production risk / forecasted production losses. Provide an input for cost benefit analysis / life cycle cost analysis in terms of forecasted production risk for different design / modification, contract, sparing, operating or maintenance options. Operational Inputs for severities assessment 1. Contract / Operating Life 2. Production Profiles 3. Ramp-up / Ramp-down 4. Switchover delays 5. Power Load Shedding 6. Bypasses available 7. Historical Operating Experience (n/a) Probability assessment: 1. Plant Turnaround 2. Preventative Maintenance (intrusive) 3. CM/BM failure history from CMMS

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4 Evaluate reliability performance

The next step is to evaluate the reliability performance of your system based on the reliability metrics and the failure probabilities and severities. You can use mathematical formulas, simulation tools, or software packages to calculate the reliability metrics of your system and compare them with the reliability goals. You should also perform sensitivity analysis to identify the critical factors that influence the reliability performance and the trade-offs between them.

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Indra Purnama

Global RAM based Capital Spares Specialist
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Focus on key Behavioral and Risk Management Systems Performance stewardship (how well we play) Based on leading indicators Assess “How do you know” Turn leading and lagging indicators into a scorecard for communication and alignment

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5 Identify reliability risks and issues

The final step is to identify the reliability risks and issues that may affect your system development and operation. Reliability risks are the potential events or situations that may cause your system to fail to meet the reliability goals. Reliability issues are the actual or observed problems or defects that impair your system reliability. You can use techniques such as risk matrix, risk register, or issue tracking to document and prioritize the reliability risks and issues of your system.

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6 Implement reliability improvement actions

Based on the reliability evaluation results, you should implement reliability improvement actions to mitigate the reliability risks and issues and enhance the reliability performance of your system. Reliability improvement actions are the specific tasks or activities that aim to prevent, reduce, or eliminate the failure modes and effects of your system. You can use techniques such as design for reliability (DFR), reliability testing, reliability growth, or reliability maintenance to implement the reliability improvement actions.

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7 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?

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Garima Awasthi

Lead Technology at Successive Technologies
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- Use software tools to simulate system behavior and predict reliability under different conditions. - Create prototypes to test critical functionalities and identify potential failure modes. - Perform early-stage testing to detect and address reliability issues before they escalate. - Keep detailed records of design choices, test results, and failure analysis for continuous improvement and future reference.

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How can you evaluate system reliability during the early stages of development?

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1 Define reliability goals

2 Identify failure modes and effects

3 Estimate failure probabilities and severities

4 Evaluate reliability performance

5 Identify reliability risks and issues

6 Implement reliability improvement actions

7 Here’s what else to consider

Systems Engineering

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How can you evaluate system reliability during the early stages of development?

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1 Define reliability goals

2 Identify failure modes and effects

3 Estimate failure probabilities and severities

4 Evaluate reliability performance

5 Identify reliability risks and issues

6 Implement reliability improvement actions

7 Here’s what else to consider

Systems Engineering

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