How can you evaluate the plausibility of different scenarios?

1 Define your criteria

Before you start evaluating your scenarios, you need to define the criteria that you will use to judge them. These criteria should reflect your purpose, scope, and context of your scenario planning. For example, you might want to consider the following questions: How relevant are the scenarios to your goals and challenges? How consistent are they with the evidence and trends? How diverse and comprehensive are they? How actionable and flexible are they? You can use a simple rating scale or a more complex matrix to compare your scenarios based on your criteria.

2 Review your sources

Another step to evaluate your scenarios is to review the sources of information and data that you used to create them. You want to make sure that your sources are credible, reliable, and up-to-date. You also want to check for any gaps, contradictions, or uncertainties in your data. You can use tools like SWOT analysis, PESTEL analysis, or STEEPLE analysis to identify the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of your scenarios, as well as the political, economic, social, technological, environmental, legal, and ethical factors that affect them.

3 Test your assumptions

A third step to evaluate your scenarios is to test your assumptions and hypotheses that underpin them. You want to challenge your own thinking and avoid confirmation bias, anchoring bias, or overconfidence bias. You can use techniques like devil's advocacy, pre-mortem analysis, or what-if analysis to expose the potential flaws, risks, or uncertainties of your scenarios. You can also ask for feedback from others who have different perspectives, expertise, or backgrounds.

4 Explore your alternatives

A fourth step to evaluate your scenarios is to explore your alternatives and options. You want to avoid being locked into one scenario or being blind to other possibilities. You can use tools like scenario cross-impact analysis, scenario morphological analysis, or scenario simulation to generate and compare different combinations and variations of your scenarios. You can also use tools like scenario portfolio analysis, scenario robustness analysis, or scenario sensitivity analysis to assess the performance and impact of your scenarios under different conditions and uncertainties.

5 Monitor your indicators

A fifth step to evaluate your scenarios is to monitor your indicators and signals that track the changes and trends in your environment. You want to keep your scenarios updated and relevant as new information and data become available. You can use tools like scenario dashboard, scenario scorecard, or scenario radar to measure and visualize the progress and status of your scenarios. You can also use tools like scenario early warning system, scenario surprise analysis, or scenario learning loop to detect and respond to any deviations or surprises in your scenarios.

6 Communicate your results

A final step to evaluate your scenarios is to communicate your results and insights to your stakeholders and audiences. You want to share your scenarios in a clear, compelling, and engaging way that highlights their value and implications. You can use tools like scenario storytelling, scenario visualization, or scenario gaming to present and explain your scenarios in a narrative, graphic, or interactive format. You can also use tools like scenario dialogue, scenario workshop, or scenario action plan to facilitate the discussion and implementation of your scenarios.

7 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?