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How can you create and test hypotheses effectively?

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As an entrepreneur, you need to make assumptions about your customers, your value proposition, and your business model. But how do you know if these assumptions are valid and worth pursuing? The answer is to create and test hypotheses effectively. In this article, you will learn what a hypothesis is, how to formulate one, how to design an experiment to test it, how to analyze the results, and how to iterate based on the feedback.

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Sílvia Taveira de Almeida

?? Doctor of Management DBA (wip) | Lecturer | NED | Startup Mentor | Simplifying Innovation | Go-To-Market Strategies…

1 What is a hypothesis?

A hypothesis is a specific, testable, and falsifiable statement that expresses your assumption about a key aspect of your business idea. For example, a hypothesis could be: "People who like hiking are willing to pay $20 for a monthly subscription to a curated list of trails and tips." A hypothesis is not a vague or general claim, such as: "Hiking is a popular activity." A hypothesis should also be based on some evidence or research, such as customer interviews, surveys, or market analysis.

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2 How to formulate a hypothesis?

To formulate a hypothesis, you need to identify the problem you are trying to solve, the solution you are offering, and the value you are delivering to your customers. You can use a simple template to structure your hypothesis, such as: "We believe that [customer segment] has [problem] and that [solution] will [value proposition]." For example, using the previous example, you could write: "We believe that people who like hiking have difficulty finding new and interesting trails and that a curated list of trails and tips will save them time and enhance their experience."

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Sílvia Taveira de Almeida

?? Doctor of Management DBA (wip) | Lecturer | NED | Startup Mentor | Simplifying Innovation | Go-To-Market Strategies | Bridging academia and industry
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For entrepreneurs not used to this more scientific approach, it is particularly helpful to combine a tool like the Business Model Canvas, which is already a first step in synthesizing one's ideas about the business. Afterward, translating the objective statements in each BMC area into two or three critical hypotheses is easier. Also, it is important to keep the hypothesis and experiments aligned with the critical variables of the business model, otherwise, they are "nice to have" but won't move the needle toward business validation.

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3 How to design an experiment?

To test your hypothesis, you need to design an experiment that will expose your solution to your target customers and measure their response. An experiment is a method of collecting data that will either validate or invalidate your hypothesis. You can use different types of experiments, such as landing pages, prototypes, MVPs, or interviews, depending on the stage of your idea and the resources you have. The key is to define a clear goal, a metric, and a success criterion for your experiment. For example, for the hiking subscription hypothesis, you could create a landing page that explains your offer and asks visitors to sign up for a free trial. Your goal could be to measure the conversion rate, your metric could be the number of sign-ups, and your success criterion could be 10% or more.

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4 How to analyze the results?

To analyze the results of your experiment, you need to compare the data you collected with the success criterion you defined. You need to be objective and honest about what the data tells you, and avoid confirmation bias or cherry-picking. You also need to consider the quality and quantity of your data, and the reliability and validity of your experiment. For example, for the landing page experiment, you could look at how many visitors signed up for the free trial, how they found your page, and how long they stayed on it. You could also check if they fit your customer segment and if they provided any feedback.

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Sílvia Taveira de Almeida

?? Doctor of Management DBA (wip) | Lecturer | NED | Startup Mentor | Simplifying Innovation | Go-To-Market Strategies | Bridging academia and industry
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It is particularly tempting to find excuses why the results of each experiment are not the most favorable; instead of taking for granted a confirmation of a "wishful" result, take a hard look at those mitigating circumstances - the "excuses - and test them as hypothesis too. For example, for the landing page experiment, if your page views were below expectations, you might get to the thought "maybe the investment in paid media was too little"... Make this a hypothesis - "I believe that X USD invested in Y media channel will produce Z number of visits to my landing page" and test before moving forward.

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5 How to iterate based on feedback?

Based on the analysis of your results, you need to decide what to do next with your hypothesis. You have three options: pivot, persevere, or kill. Pivot means that you change one or more elements of your hypothesis based on the feedback you received and test it again. Persevere means that you keep your hypothesis as it is and test it with more customers or in different ways. Kill means that you discard your hypothesis and move on to a different idea or problem. For example, for the landing page experiment, you could pivot by changing the price or the content of your offer, persevere by launching the free trial and collecting more data, or kill by realizing that there is no demand for your solution.

Creating and testing hypotheses effectively is a crucial skill for entrepreneurs who want to validate their ideas and build successful businesses. By following these steps, you can avoid wasting time and money on assumptions that are not supported by evidence, and instead focus on solving real problems and delivering real value to your customers.

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6 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?

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How can you create and test hypotheses effectively?

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5

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1 What is a hypothesis?

2 How to formulate a hypothesis?

3 How to design an experiment?

4 How to analyze the results?

5 How to iterate based on feedback?

6 Here’s what else to consider

Entrepreneurship

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How can you create and test hypotheses effectively?

1

2

3

4

5

6

1 What is a hypothesis?

2 How to formulate a hypothesis?

3 How to design an experiment?

4 How to analyze the results?

5 How to iterate based on feedback?

6 Here’s what else to consider

Entrepreneurship

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