A historical hypothesis is a tentative explanation or answer to a historical question, based on evidence and interpretation. It is not a guess or a fact, but a testable proposition that can be supported or challenged by further research. In this article, you will learn how to create a historical hypothesis in six steps, from defining your research question to evaluating your hypothesis.
The first step to create a historical hypothesis is to choose a topic that interests you and that has enough sources and literature to explore. You can start with a broad theme, such as a period, a region, a movement, or a person, and then narrow it down to a specific aspect or problem. For example, if you are interested in the French Revolution, you might focus on the role of women, the causes of violence, or the impact of the Enlightenment.
Methodology may foreground topic because certain methods immediately apply stringent limitations. For example, data-driven art histories and technical art history often start with the method and not the topic. With data-driven art histories, you need work from a data set that's large enough to extrapolate meaningful conclusions, which will limit topical possibilities. With technical art history, the specific techniques a researcher wants to explore and ease of access to the specialized machinery required can impact project topic.
When choosing a topic it helps to make it something you are going to be interested in learning about. You will be spending a large amount of time researching this topic so if you are not interested it will feel like a eternity. You should also make sure it is not too broad or you will have too much information and not be able to fully develop your thesis. For example, the American Revolution would be too broad, but if you break it down to Women's Involvement in the American Revolution that narrows your scope of research.
The next step is to formulate a research question that guides your investigation and helps you define your hypothesis. A research question is a clear, focused, and open-ended question that can be answered with evidence and analysis. It should not be too broad or too vague, but also not too narrow or specific. For example, a good research question for the French Revolution might be: How did the Declaration of the Rights of Man and of the Citizen reflect the ideals and conflicts of the revolutionaries?
Before you develop your own hypothesis, you need to review the existing literature on your topic and identify the main arguments, debates, and gaps in the scholarship. This will help you understand the historical context, the different perspectives, and the current state of knowledge on your topic. You can use books, articles, reviews, and other sources to find relevant information and evaluate their reliability and validity.
The fourth step is to identify your evidence, or the primary and secondary sources that you will use to support or challenge your hypothesis. Primary sources are the original documents, artifacts, or testimonies that were produced or witnessed in the past, such as letters, diaries, speeches, newspapers, or paintings. Secondary sources are the interpretations or analyses of primary sources by historians or other scholars, such as books, articles, or documentaries.
The fifth step is to develop your hypothesis, or the tentative answer to your research question, based on your evidence and literature review. Your hypothesis should be clear, concise, and specific, and it should make a claim that can be tested and argued. It should also reflect your own perspective and contribution to the historical debate. For example, a possible hypothesis for the research question on the Declaration of the Rights of Man and of the Citizen might be: The Declaration of the Rights of Man and of the Citizen was a radical document that embodied the aspirations and contradictions of the revolutionaries, who sought to establish a new political order based on the principles of liberty, equality, and fraternity, but also faced resistance and opposition from various groups and interests.
I think cliometrics has a lot of insights to inform us on how counterfactuals play a role in the formulation of historical hypotheses, and the alternative economic destinies of countries and sectors.
The final step is to evaluate your hypothesis, or to assess its strengths and weaknesses, and to revise it if necessary. You can evaluate your hypothesis by asking yourself some questions, such as: Does it answer your research question? Does it fit your evidence? Does it address the existing literature? Does it make sense logically and historically? Does it have any limitations or assumptions? Does it raise any new questions or implications? By evaluating your hypothesis, you can improve its clarity, validity, and originality, and prepare yourself for further research and writing.