Here's how you can navigate risks and uncertainties in decision-making like a pro.

Insight: Traditional risk assessment often focuses on preventing negative outcomes, but an unconventional approach emphasizes embracing certain risks as a gateway to innovation. By viewing risks as opportunities for growth and innovation, leaders can cultivate resilience and adaptability in their teams. Engagement Strategy: To engage stakeholders in this mindset, introduce "Risk Brainstorming Sessions" where teams proactively identify potential risks and then pivot to discuss how these could be converted into opportunities. This practice not only prepares the organization for potential challenges but also encourages a culture of innovation and proactive problem-solving.

With respect to the evaluation of options, one of the traps that can result in a sub-optimal decision is a failure to *fully explore* all potentially viable options. In a situation, for example, where one is determining the relative utility of Option A (purchasing a renovated home), Option B (building a home), and Option C (purchasing a lower priced home that requires renovations), superficial analysis of the costs, benefits and value of each option can easily result in a decision that yields less value than an alternative. For decisions that require an allocation of significant resources, comprehensive evaluation is needed to determine which of the options available is, in fact, likely to yield the best result.

While instincts and intuition can be valuable, it's critical to distinguish between intuition/instincts and biases during the decision-making process. This is because there are so many 'decision traps' into which we can fall as a result of the large number of biases to which human beings are subject. For example, during a market downturn, one's 'instinct' may be to sell their shares (and lose money) rather than wait for the market to rebound. In a situation where it is clear that one is 'throwing good money after bad', one's 'instinct' may compel them to continue to do in order to avoid initial losses (due to sunk cost fallacy). Thus, making decisions like a pro requires the ability to skilfully differentiate between instincts and biases.

Insight: Managing emotions is often seen as a personal skill, but it has significant organizational implications. Teaching emotional management as a team competency can enhance collective decision-making and improve workplace dynamics. Engagement Strategy: Introduce "Emotional Agility Rounds" in team meetings where members can discuss and reflect on emotional responses to recent decisions or challenges. This can help normalize discussions about emotions in professional settings and enhance emotional intelligence across the team.

Imagine a group of Zebras on the Serengeti. An overanxious Zebra thinks it hears something in the bushes. Fearing a lion, the Zebra runs away in a panic. Others follow, even though the sound is simply the wind. Why did the first Zebra run away and why did the others follow? The answer is that the costs of over-reacting are low; while the costs under-reacting can be high (e.g. eaten by a lion). As human beings, we've likely evolved to be similarly 'risk averse'. Unfortunately, this results in a disproportionate focus on 'avoiding risk'; rather than 'creating value'. Understanding this bias and managing the emotions that come with it can help to create far more value than one who simply seeks to manage risk.

Insight: Additional considerations often focus on quantitative data or predictable impacts. An insightful approach involves exploring the 'unknown unknowns'—factors that are typically overlooked because they are outside the current frame of reference. Engagement Strategy: Facilitate "Exploratory Think Tanks," periodic meetings aimed at delving into unconventional or overlooked factors affecting decisions. Encourage stakeholders to think outside the box and challenge the status quo, thus broadening the decision-making landscape.